Iran’s Indian Ocean warning raises stakes beyond the Gulf and Red Sea

Staff Correspondent, Dhaka:

Iran has widened the geographic scope of its warnings over a possible renewed confrontation with the United States, with a senior adviser to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei saying the conflict could reach the Indian Ocean if Washington launches further attacks.

Yahya Rahim Safavi, a military adviser to Khamenei, said Thursday that Iran had prepared for different scenarios and that a renewed conflict could expand beyond the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Red Sea to the Indian Ocean. His remarks were released by Iran’s Fars news agency.

The warning adds a new maritime dimension to an already expanding conflict. The Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab are critical links in international shipping, connecting energy-producing regions with markets in Asia and Europe. Recent fighting involving Yemen’s Houthis and Saudi-backed forces has also increased pressure around the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab.

An expansion into the Indian Ocean would potentially bring strategic shipping lanes and military facilities farther from Iran into the conflict’s calculations. However, Safavi did not specify whether Iran would target commercial shipping, military assets, or particular countries, leaving the operational meaning of the warning uncertain.

The statement also comes as diplomatic efforts continue. Iranian and US officials have held indirect discussions around the UN General Assembly in New York, while Tehran has linked a possible easing of the conflict to issues including sanctions and the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has separately indicated that it could reopen the waterway if US military pressure is reduced.

For regional economies, the immediate concern is the possibility of further disruption to shipping, energy flows, insurance costs, and maritime security if the conflict spreads eastward.

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