Senior Correspondent, Dhaka:
Ten years after the landmark arbitral ruling on the South China Sea, the dispute remains as politically charged as ever, underscoring the widening divide between competing interpretations of international law and geopolitical power. The anniversary has highlighted not only unresolved maritime claims but also the growing strategic competition shaping the Indo-Pacific.
On the 10th anniversary of the 2016 ruling, a coalition of 14 countries led by the Philippines and the United States reaffirmed the tribunal’s decision as “final and legally binding,” while the European Union issued its own statement supporting the verdict. The coordinated diplomatic backing reflects an expanding international effort to reinforce the rules-based maritime order established under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
China, however, remains unwavering in its rejection of the ruling, describing it as “illegal, null and void.” Beijing continues to argue that sovereignty disputes should be resolved only through bilateral negotiations rather than international arbitration. This fundamental disagreement illustrates the broader contest between legal norms and strategic power that increasingly defines regional security.
The significance of the dispute extends well beyond the competing claimants. The South China Sea carries nearly one-third of global maritime trade, making freedom of navigation and regional stability vital to the global economy. Any escalation risks disrupting international shipping, energy supplies, and supply chains across Asia and beyond.
The anniversary also reveals shifting geopolitical alignments. Western powers, together with regional partners such as Japan and Australia, have become increasingly vocal in supporting international law as the foundation for maritime governance. Meanwhile, China continues to strengthen its military and coast guard presence, reinforcing its effective control over many disputed features despite legal challenges.
For ASEAN, the dispute remains a delicate balancing act. While member states seek to preserve regional stability and economic cooperation with China, they also face growing pressure to uphold international legal principles. A binding Code of Conduct between ASEAN and China remains under negotiation, but progress has been slow.
A decade after The Hague ruling, the legal verdict remains unchanged, yet the political and strategic contest surrounding the South China Sea continues to intensify, making it one of the world’s most consequential geopolitical flashpoints.
