By Sadik Sagar, Dhaka.
Bangladesh’s recent parliamentary election, which delivered a two-thirds majority to the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)-led alliance with 209 seats, is being widely viewed as a significant political transition with potential implications for the country’s foreign policy orientation. International media outlet Al Jazeera described the outcome as a “paradigm shift” in Bangladesh’s political and regional positioning.
The victory of the BNP, led by Tarique Rahman, brings to a close the tenure associated with former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Analysts suggest that the change in leadership could lead to a recalibration of Dhaka’s ties with key regional and global actors, including India, Pakistan, China and the United States.
Relations with India are expected to remain a central focus. Under Hasina, Bangladesh maintained close cooperation with New Delhi. However, ties became strained following political developments in 2024 that resulted in Hasina’s departure to India. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated the new leadership, reaffirming India’s commitment to supporting a “democratic, progressive and inclusive Bangladesh.” He emphasized the deep-rooted historical and cultural ties between the two neighbours and expressed hope for continued cooperation.
Experts indicate that the BNP government may adopt a pragmatic approach toward India, seeking a functional working relationship while emphasizing mutual respect and noninterference. Outstanding issues—such as the Teesta River water-sharing dispute, border incidents, trade imbalances, and legal matters concerning Hasina—are likely to remain part of bilateral discussions.
Speaking to Al Jazeera, Delwar Hossain, professor of international relations at the University of Dhaka, described the election outcome as “a new turning point in crafting bilateral relations with India and Pakistan.” He noted that the continuing India-Pakistan hostility and China-India rivalry would remain key determinants of Bangladesh’s foreign policy direction. Persistent bilateral issues with India include the Teesta River water-sharing dispute, border incidents, trade imbalances, and legal matters concerning Hasina.
Pakistan has also signaled interest in strengthening engagement with Dhaka. Observers note that confidence-building measures, including the resumption of direct flights and eased visa procedures, were initiated prior to the election. Discussions on expanded economic and potential defence cooperation may feature in future talks, although analysts expect the BNP to pursue a balanced and transactional diplomacy with both Islamabad and New Delhi.
China, a major development partner under the Belt and Road Initiative framework, has expressed readiness to deepen cooperation with the new administration. Analysts suggest that economic and infrastructure collaboration with Beijing may continue, while Dhaka navigates broader strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific region.
The United States has welcomed the election outcome. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio congratulated the BNP, its chairman Tarique Rahman, and the people of Bangladesh. In a message posted on X, Rubio stated that Washington looks forward to working with the newly elected government to advance regional prosperity, stability and security.
Political observers say the BNP’s “Bangladesh First” policy signals an intention to prioritize sovereignty and national interest while maintaining balanced relations with major powers. Rather than abrupt shifts, incremental adjustments in foreign policy are anticipated as the new government seeks to position Bangladesh as an independent and constructive regional actor.
