Special Correspondent, Dhaka:
The economic consequences of the six-month war involving Iran, the United States, and Israel are reaching countries far from the battlefield, including Bangladesh, which is already dealing with the lingering effects of the Russia-Ukraine war.
For Bangladesh, the concern is not the conflict itself but its potential to create another round of pressure on an economy still exposed to higher global energy, food, shipping, and commodity prices following the Russia-Ukraine war.
The Strait of Hormuz has become a major source of uncertainty. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has confirmed 68 incidents in the Gulf and neighboring waters, with at least 20 seafarers and port workers killed, 35 injured, and one reported missing. Around half of the incidents involved tankers, highlighting the risks to a major route for global oil and gas shipments.
Any prolonged disruption could increase fuel prices, freight charges, and marine insurance costs. These increases would be particularly important for Bangladesh because the country depends on imported fuel, industrial raw materials, and other essential commodities. Higher import costs could put further pressure on businesses, consumers, and the country’s foreign-exchange position.
The impact could also spread to Bangladesh’s export sector. Higher shipping and insurance expenses can raise the cost of transporting garments and other products to international markets, while expensive imported inputs can increase production costs. Together, these pressures could weaken exporters’ competitiveness and add to inflationary pressures.
The experience of the Russia-Ukraine war demonstrates how a conflict far from Bangladesh can produce domestic economic consequences. That war disrupted energy, food, and commodity markets, increasing costs for import-dependent economies. The current instability around Hormuz risks creating another external shock before Bangladesh has fully absorbed those earlier pressures.
The changing frequency of maritime incidents adds to the uncertainty. Incidents declined during peace talks but increased again after negotiations collapsed around July 7.
For Bangladesh, the key concern is therefore cumulative pressure. A prolonged Hormuz crisis could add another layer of higher energy, shipping, and import costs, making economic recovery more difficult and leaving households and businesses to bear much of the burden.
